| Since the reform & opening up in 1978 to around 2011,China's GDP has shown a rapid growth of 10% per year,making China the second largest economy in the world.However,the rapid growth of the economy is based on the large consumption of fossil energy.The inefficient consumption of energy leads to the decrease of natural resources and the aggravation of pollution,which lead to the abnormal fluctuation of climate over the past hundred years.These phenomena had become a hindrance factor for the sustainable development of all countries.Therefore,in order to alleviate the global climate change,the pollution control measures have been gradually published.At the same time,since 2011,China's economy has been different from the previous 30 years' characteristics.The continuous decline of GDP growth means China has entry into the new normal economic growth mode.Therefore,controlling greenhouse gas emission and maintaining high speed growth in the economy are the two major problems of China's current development.In this context,the market mechanism of internalizing the external cost of carbon emission is likely to influence the path of Chinese emission reduction activities and the economic structure adjustment.As the core of the market mechanism,the price can provide a reference for carbon abatement cost,but also help change the enterprises' manufacture styles,promoting the conversions of increase modes;In turn,carbon abatement and the adjustment of the economic structure have influence to determination and fluctuation of carbon price.Therefore,the key to China's carbon pricing under the condition of carbon abatement and economic restructuring is to clarify the mutual influence mechanism between the two,determine the influence factors of the formation and operation of carbon price and clarify the carbon price spillover effect.Based on the logic thinking of “the interaction mechanism of emission abatement and carbon price-the interaction mechanism of adjustment of economy structure and carbon price-carbon pricing under the conditions of economic structure adjustment and carbon abatement-the spillover effect of carbon prices-problems in the management of carbon price-policy recommendations”,this paper studies the determination and change of China's carbon market price,so as to establish a carbon price analysis framework to meet the needs of China's emission abatement and economic development at this stage.On the basis of analyzing literature,this paper studies the interaction mechanism of emission abatement,the adjustment of economic structure and the carbon price,analyses the incentive and constraint mechanism of the carbon price signal on the emission abatement and economic structure adjustment,explores the feedback mechanism of the emission abatement and economic structure adjustment to the carbon price,and determines the dynamic equilibrium condition.Then,the influence factors of the formation and operation of carbon price are analyzed from the mathematical point of view,and the carbon price range is clearly defined.Then,based on the indicators of China's emission abatement and the requirements of economic transformation and upgrading,the carbon shadow price is calculated in the 13 th five-year.Finally,the spillover effects and management problems of carbon price are analyzed,and the pertinent policy suggestions are proposed.This paper discusses CO2 abatement process based on market mechanism and the mechanism of carbon price formation in China.The results show that the competent authorities make a phased reduction in the total quota,which lead to quota scarcity and carbon price rise,and encourage producers to carry out innovation and transformation of green technology for accomplishing CO2 abatement targets.Then the difference in difference method(Di D)and the semi-parametric difference in difference method(SPDi D)are used to analyze the abatement ability in China's carbon markets.The results show that the pilot carbon markets have no effect on the CO2 emission,but they can reduce the carbon intensity,which is mainly due to the total amount of quotas calculated by the carbon intensity.In addition,the global non-radial directional distance function(Global NDDF)and its dual function are used to measure the shadow price in different regions to figure out the relationship between carbon price and abatement cost;At the same time,the performance illusion of CO2 emission index is established,and it shows that the main reason of high illusion is the growth rate of shadow price is higher than the growth rate of carbon productivity.On the basis of the analysis of the interaction mechanism between emission abatement and carbon price,the interaction mechanism of economic structure adjustment and carbon price is clarified in this paper.Before defining the mechanism of interaction,this paper discusses the characteristics of China's economic structural adjustment,including dynamic evolution,regional heterogeneity and spatial cluster characteristics firstly,and puts forward the commonalities and characteristics of transformation and upgrading of China's regional economic structure.And then mathematical models about carbon price increasing total factor productivity and promoting the carbon decoupling are used.Then the difference in difference method(Di D)and the semi-parametric difference in difference method(SPDi D)are used to validate that carbon market will not damage the economic development,and it can promote carbon decoupling and improve the economic structure.The impact of economic restructuring on carbon shadow price is analyzed by theoretical and empirical perspectives.Base on the panel model,the results show that the industrial structure and fixed assets investment has a significant positive correlation with carbon emissions shadow prices,energy consumption structure is negatively related to carbon emissions of shadow price.Finally,the interaction equilibrium mechanism of economic structure adjustment and carbon price is proposed.Based on the interaction mechanism of emission abatement,the adjustment of economic structure and the carbon price,the theoretical basis of carbon pricing is discussed,and from the mathematical point of view,the formation and the corresponding influencing factors of carbon price are defined.From the theoretical point of view,the interval of carbon price is explored.The upper limit of carbon price is the shadow price of carbon emissions.The lower limit of carbon price is the production cost increased by a unit of CO2 abatement.Then,based on the requirements of economic growth and carbon emission abatement in “13th Five-Year” plan,the regional and national carbon shadow price is calculated under different scenarios by changing the economic growth mode.The result shows that the national carbon price ceiling should be maintained at 300-500 yuan / ton.Based on the carbon pricing under the conditions of economic structure adjustment and emission abatement,we calculate the spillover effects among the China's pilot trading markets.First,the reasons for the spillover effects of carbon markets are explained based on the theory of market segmentation,the hypothesis of market effectiveness,the rule of experience and the effect of infection,which are divided into two spillover effects channels,a series of attribute similar factors among the markets and expected factors.Then the spillover effects of return and volatility are calculated by sextuple VAR-GARCH-BEKK model with asymmetric t distribution and social network analysis(SNA),and the network density,network correlation and degree centrality are analyzed.The results show that although the carbon trading markets' policy systems are different,the pilots have formed the foundation of being a unified market with asymmetric spillover effects.Finally,the carbon price management and problems in the construction and operation of carbon market are described,and the main problems include performance driving,performance delay and liquidity dilemma.Then the formation of effective carbon price and the interactive mechanism of the carbon price and the liquidity are analyzed theoretically.After that we use panel VAR(PVAR)model to explore the dynamic correlation between market liquidity,return and volatility,so as to solve the difficulties in carbon price management.The results show that there is a low liquidity problem in the carbon markets,which affects the efficiency of the carbon markets and the purpose of emission abatement.Under the market mechanism of price management measures is better than the compulsory transaction policy,and the government should regard ensuring the sustainable development of the market and making up market failure as the main purpose;The difference of the price and volume of the carbon market between the performance window and the other time should be distinguished,and different strategies should be used in management mechanism to ensue the effective operation of the carbon market.In addition,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the carbon pricing efficiency and the connection method of national carbon market and the pilot carbon markets. |
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