Research On Fire Risk Evaluation For City Areas

With the characteristics of the concentration of production, wealth, people and buildings,disasters such as fire in a city would result in great economic loss and even serious mental strike to people. Evaluation on the city fire risk is an interesting project. Based on the former experiences, the fire protection and system evaluation theory, this thesis confirms a set of indexes on the city fire risk assessment. The main points are as flow:1) Investigation on the present research fruits of city fire risk evaluation. Though studying the related information, this paper sums up some common theories and methods from some researches of America, Japan, England and other developed countries, and presents a basic research method.2) Basic theories of city fire risk evaluation are discussed. Basic concepts of the risk and risk management are introduced. Contents and hypostasis of fire risk are also expounded. The course of city fire risk is also analyzed systematically.3) This thesis discusses the basic progress of system evaluation. Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process, the common mathematical method that has been used in assessment is analyzed.4) This thesis also presents a set of indexes system for city fire risk evaluation, which is based on the regional character of a city, fire load rate, fire brigade action level, and social management. The contents in indexes, the principles and the foundation are analyzed in detail.5) Grey theory is used to forecast the fire frequency and the direct economic losses from 2000 to 2005 in Nanan District, Chongqing city. According to the evaluation system mentioned in this paper, the fire risk condition in the region is assessed, some problems in that region are pointed out, and then some suggestions are proved.