Study On Land Use Change And Ecological Security Evaluation Of County

Ecological Security is defined as the undamaged or unthreatened conditions for the living space and Eco-Environment for regional sustainable development. Land use and land cover pattern changes are the most important among the factors and processes influencing the regional ecological security. So, taken Jingyan County, an ecology weak regional as a case, by gathering pictures spare in the past and statistics data of Jingyan County government ,the Paper synthesized-using the correlation analysis of gray system theory, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Combined Geographic Information System (MAPGIS), the correlative statistic software (DPS) and the other software , analyzing the state of land use /cover change from the year 1997 to 2004,and the effect to Ecological Environmental and Ecological Security by this change of Jingyan County . The main content and the conclusion are as follows:1. Analysis of space-time change of land use in Jingyan County. The paper analyzed the changes of structure ,quantity , spatial pattern and trend in future of the land use type in Jingyan County respectively, it is displaying: from structure change of view, the proportion of the cultivated land have been reduced from 39.64 to 36.59 percent, the decrement are 3.05;from quantity of view, The reduced area and range of cultivated land both stand first on the list, the area decreased 2562.6 hm~2 and 8.22% compared with it in 1997,correspondingly, the quantity of the garden plot, the woodland and the constructive land increasing obviously .the total tendencies of land use change are as follows: the area of the cultivated land, the other farming land and the wasted land are gradually decreasing, the garden plot, the woodland and the constructive land gradually increasing; from space of view, the higher diversity index of landscape, the diversity, well-distributed fragmentation of the land use are higher than ever, and dominance are lower than ever; which show that the disturbance degree of human's are gradually increasing; on the base of analyzing land use change ,used the model of the gray of GM(1,1) and predicted the quantity of land use type in future. by predicting,the quantity of cultivate land will reduced to 24202.84 hm~2 in the year of 2020.the quantity of reduced are very lange,so,we should perform the police of protecting cultivate land put into effect and do well in executing "the cultivate land requisition-compensation balance "to the best of our abilities in2. The driving force for land use change in Jingyan county .The driving force is the cause to the land use change, so, firstly, the paper qualitative analyzed the driving for the land use change in Jingyan county; secondly, it selected the factors of driving and calculated gray correlation degree between the factors of driving and the land use change quantitatively. by synthesis analyzing ,we can conclude that the driving force for the land use change are the follows: The increasing of the non-agricultural population, industrialization and urbanization , the development of economy and the policy ,they integrating and facilitating with each other, influencing the land use change commonly .3. The assessment of eco-systematic safety in Jingyan County. Many years human's activity is the cause to land use change in Jingyan County, and the eco-environment is damaged seriously by this change. Such as: the structure of the land use are unreasonable; the land surface have been...