Application And Research Of Uncertain Programming Model Under River Water Environment

In recent years, in company with the continuous growth of human population and water consumption, as well as the aggravation of water pollution, water resource crises problem has become increasingly prominent. In order to control the water pollution, protect the water resource and maintain the steady development of human, economy and society, water environmental programming must be carried on.Water environmental programming is the important path and means to coordinate the relationship between socioeconomic development and water environmental protection. It has been applied widely in recent 20 years. How to choose the programming method is the core contents of the water programming. The programming methods can be divided into certain programming and uncertain programming according to the characteristic of information and the processing methods. In comparison with certain programming, uncertain programming is still a new research field. In consideration of the uncertain characteristic of variable, uncertain programming model is adopted and uncertainty is merged into the optimizing process. Therefore, the result approximates the actual circumstance of the system. There is a lot of research domestic and international about water environmental uncertain programming models, such as random programming model, fuzzy programming model, gray programming model, multi-object inexact programming model, dynamics–multi-object programming model and so forth. Moreover, random information, fuzzy information, gray information, unascertained information, blind information and so forth are introduced in this thesis.The river water environmental system is a complicated system filled with uncertain factors and variety. Parameter information such as water current quantity, velocity of flow, pollutant concentration, the pollutant comprehensive attenuation coefficient etc., can be expressed with uncertain information. The water environmental system information can also be divided into random information, fuzzy information, gray information and unascertained information etc.. During such a long time, research on uncertainty in water environmental system basically aimed at some kind of uncertainty, but under the uncertain effect of hydrologic process and pollutant discharge, random, fuzzy, gray and unascertained always existed at the same time. As a result, there must be difference with the actual circumstance and the result. In order to solve this problem, this kind of uncertainty can be expressed with blind information. In the river environmental system, parameters such as water current quantity, velocity of flow, pollutant concentration, the pollutant comprehensive attenuation coefficient etc., can be expressed with blind information, basing on annual hydrologic data.The river water uncertain programming model in this thesis is put forward according to the theory of BM model, the river water environmental capacity calculation model, pollutant discharge calculation model and benefit-cost analysis model. The model form is as follows:This model has improved the traditional benefit-cost analysis method for the first time, considering the probability of benefit and expressing it with r_i calculated from BM model. The improved benefit-cost analysis model was applied as target function. The target function considered not only the benefit and cost of designs, but also the probability of benefit. Therefore, the result was more reasonable. The alternate design with the maximum ofη_i is the optimal design whose unit funds can acquire the maximal possible income.Finally, a certain segment of Yinma River was selected and this model was applied to water pollution controlling programming. Through the statistics and analysis of hydrologic data in recent years, parameters such as water current quantityQ (m³/s), velocity of flow u (m/s), initial pollutant concentration C₀(mg/L)etc., can be acquired and expressed with blind number. Two 54-rank blind expressions of water environmental capacity can be acquired during calculation. W₁ was 64738.43t/a and W₂ was 19580.90 t/a. By contrasting analysis of the two alternate designs, the benefit-cost index of the first design was 1.743 and that of the second design was 1.549. So the first design is the optimal design. During this programming, the benefit and cost of the second design were bigger than those of the first design, and the optimal design was the second one if calculated by the traditional benefit-cost expression. But, the reliability of benefit was not considered in the traditional benefit-cost expression. In this thesis, the effect of sewage disposal, cost and benefit were all considered in the model. Therefore, this model can analysis and deal with problems from all-sided point of view.This thesis tried to apply the blind number theory into the river water environmental uncertain programming, developed a kind of uncertain programming model basing on the blind number theory, and successfully applied this model to the river water pollution controlling programming. It provided a new method of research for river water uncertain programming.