The Generation Prediction Of Municipal Solid Waste And Adjustment Research For Waste Generation System

City is an important social organized form and it plays a hold-the-balance role in civil economy development. But going with city s quick development, the phenomena of garbage surrounding city is more and more common in the cities of all scales all over the country. Municipal solid waste and industrial solid waste gradually become an very important threat of urban environmental sanitation and resident health, and restrict the continuable development of the society, economy and environment. Because of the confining of some factors such as technology, fund, management etal, in our country, municipal solid waste management hasnt reached the corresponding level. So, its very meaningful to do full process research of municipal solid waste metabolizing.Doing analysis to municipal solid waste generation system is the basic consideration to the successful construction and running of municipal solid waste management system .The main parts about municipal solid waste generation system are generation amount prediction and system adjustment. But to most cities of our country, solid waste management work started lately, so the relevant department is lack of historical stat-data. Moreover, there are many uncertain factors in the solid waste generation system. All these make it difficult to do generation prediction by traditional method. First, we did thorough analysis and comment to all domestic and overseas prediction methods, then chose system dynamics method to do research to municipal solid waste generation system. In the following, we did interaction analysis among effect factors of municipal solid waste generation system , and then built system dynamics (SD) model basing on software VENSIM and applied the model to do municipal solid waste generation prediction to Shenzhen. After this, we set different scenes to do system behavior simulation basing on the prediction result, and did detailed analysis to simulation result so as to bring forward adjustment suggestion to the solid waste generation system. Finally, it indicated that the application of system method can help well do municipal solid waste generation prediction in the areas which are lack of history data, so as to offer data support to the future garbage disposal-scale confirmation and treatment-technics choice. Meantime, we can also use it to do system behavior simulation in different scenes so as to offer decision-marking evidence for government to actualize policy adjustment.