Municipal Solid Waste(MSW) System Dynamics Model And Comprehensive Treatment Base Site Locational Analysis

With the development of China's social economy,the acceleration of urbanization,the growth of urban population and the change of material consumption,the production of municipal solid waste is also growing,and the existing end treatment facilities of municipal solid waste can not meet the demand of waste growth.In this study,firstly,the system dynamics prediction model of municipal solid waste is constructed by using the system dynamics method to predict the output of municipal solid waste.Then using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and geographic information system(GIS)to research the site selection of the comprehensive treatment base of municipal solid waste,and finally,summed up the standardized operation process of the site selection of the comprehensive treatment base of municipal solid waste.First of all,using system dynamics method to analyze the generation of MSW systematically,drawing the causal loop diagram and stock-and-flow model,building the equation relationship between functions,determining the parameter value,and establishing the system dynamics forecasting model of MSW.The simulation results show that the MSW generation amount will reach 3040 thousand tonnes by 2030 and 1.6 times of that in 2017 in Xiamen City.According to the prediction results,the MSW's production shows a sustained growth trend on a time scale in Xiamen City in the prediction period,exerting a huge pressure on the existing sanitation treatment facilities.For the study of the siting of MSW comprehensive treatment base,firstly,according to the relevant specifications and regulations of the location of the terminal treatment facilities of MSW,as well as the domestic and foreign literature research and field research,determine the influencing factors of the site.Combined with the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the expert scoring method,the hierarchical structure model of siting is constructed,and the weight and suitability rating of each influencing factor are determined.Then,based on the theory of geographic information system,ArcGIS is used to build a geographic information database for data processing,and buffer analysis and overlay analysis is used to get the area suitable for the construction of comprehensive treatment base of MSW.Taking Xiamen City as an example,analyzing the sitng suitability of 9 factors,including elevation,terrain gradient,distance from water system,distance from airport,distance from port,distance from main road,population density,land use,and distance from existing comprehensive waste treatment base,and obtaining the high suitability area for the construction of comprehensive waste treatment base in Xiamen city.The high suitability area accounted for 22.37% of the study area.Finally,according to the research theory and practice of this study on the location of the comprehensive treatment base of MSW,the standard operational procedures of the comprehensive treatment base of MSW is summarized.