Variation And Prediction Of The Ecological Environment Of Baiyangdian Wetland

Baiyangdian wetland is located at the middle of Hebei region. It is the biggest freshwater shallow lake in north China and is playing an irreplaceable role in maintenance of the ecological environment in Beijing-Tianjin area even the north China. As the result of the human activity and the arid climate in the basin, water flowing into the lake was decreased year by year, water was terribly polluted, and the biodiversity was destroyed. The problems had caused the extensive concern, since the 1950's, many scholars and research institutions had made mounts of studies, there is a large number of basic data and methods to solve the problem of Baiyangdian wetland. However, there is little special, systematic and deeply researches, especially the qualitative analysis and quantitative study on the distribution and its connection with the environmental changes of the aquatic organisms. As a result, in this paper, there was a systematic study and prediction of the water quality and aquatic organisms in Baiyangdian wetland. The main conceptions were: 1. The geographical position, hydrogeology, climate, soil vegetation, historical evolution, social economy and water resources of Baiyangdian wetland; 2. Analysis the water quality data of the nine monitoring points from 1988 to 2006, divided three pollution zones and then concluded the temporal variation and spatial distribution of the pollutants; 3. Based on the previous researches, made clear the change of the biological population and the relationship between the aquatic organisms and the environment; 4. According to the specialties of Baiyangdian wetland, built a shallow water lake group model to predicted the water quality and ecological systems in different hydrological years(25%,50%,75%). The model was coupled the gray GM(1,1) model and the BP-ANN(Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Network). The water level cannot be ensured except the water supplement projects, so the water quality will obviously improved. The prediction results show that except partial of the lake show a slight pollution because of the wastewater from Fuhe river, most of Baiyangdian wetland will maintain a clean water quality, and the eco-environment will restoration as well. 5. At last, there was a summary of the conclusion and shortcomings, and a few suggestions for the researches in the future.