Research And Application City Region Fire Risk Assessment Fundamental

With the rapid development of economic construction of our country, reinforcement of national overall strength, and with the gradually quickening of urbanizing process, a large set of high buildings, underground engineering and public gathered places have sprung up. While population density and wealthy gross are increasing, the urban disaster are also increasingly raying, among then, fire is the top menace. Therefore, researches of fire mechanism, construction of risk evaluation system for urban area, prediction of fire development situation, Carry on information-based management to the district fire are the important research subjects for home and abroad safety works.In this paper, fire risk evaluation theory of urban area is made as the title, based on full inquiries, statistics and analysis of four project statistical index data of our country from 1990 to 2007, and on the basis of comparison data of ten causes of fires, by the aid of probability and mathematical statistics, fire engineering, system safety theory and grey system theory, serious fire safety situation and injurious features of fire are analyzed, and main dangerous sources of urban area fire are differentiated. Through mathematical modeling, the model of fire risk evaluation and the predicting model macro fire development are established, and a fire risk management system in urban area are programmed:1. Analytical main characteristic and reason of the district fire of our country city, induce to tally up the breadth suffused content of fire risk valuation of a city district based on contrast, studied the research result and the irregularity currently of fire risk valuation at home and abroad currently.2. As to area fire, based on the risk evaluation and prediction of development situation, through the research on definition, sort and rules of risk, the basic principles and methods to evaluate risk are established. On the ground of that, taking occurrence probability and serious trend of area fire risk as research objects, the classification and evaluation model of correlative fire risk are analyzed, the evaluation method of area fire risk and predicting method of fire casualty and property loss are established in theory.3. To facilitate dynamic management of urban area fire risk, the elements of fire risk management are analyzed; visualization system soft of area fire risk management is developed through Delphi programming design, this soft has friendly interface, convenient man-machine conversation and simple operation, it facilitates statistical inquiry of basic fire data, fire risk evaluation, fire trend prediction and fire controlling spatial query of important units.Take some member in pond district of Xiangtan as an example to carry on the model identification, it indicate that studies and application on theory of area fire risk evaluation is a comprehensive and systematical work, it not only has quite importance in theory, but also it gets scientific research achievements of actual effect and popularization value in practice.