Fire Risk Assessment And Prediction For Urban Areas

Various risk factors initiating fire bring about abundantly and the difficulties of:fire prevention and fighting increase further, with the rapid development of China economy and the increase of social wealth. Huge loss of social economy development even serious effect on human psychology must occur since fire happen. The Demand of the economy and social development and human happy lives for fire safety unprecedentedly increase, and how to reasonably evaluate and predict fire risk more and more become to a subject worth to investigate. To all conditions mentioned above, related theories and methods of system safety engineering and mathematical means were applied in this study, and evaluation and prediction researches of regional fire risk were undertaken as follows:On basis of Liaoning province fire date, date statistic and overall forecast were engaged in, and fire cause, fire lose and general fire trend of Liaoning province were analyzed. Based on that, reasons of fire frequency never decreasing of Liaoning province were studied on, and measures to reduce fire risk were put forward.A certain region in Liaoning province, that is Heping district, Shenyang city, was taken as research object after data analysis. Fire risk evaluation method based on fuzzy mathematics was studied, with which regional fire risk evaluation index system was extracted and established. Fire risk index weights were determined by mathematical statistics and expert diagnosis methods. Quantitative method to the indices of regional fire risk evaluation system was given out. Regional fire risk was evaluated by multistage fuzzy synthetic evaluation model.Information diffusion theory was studied, on which regional fire risk evaluation model was set up refer to predicting method of natural disaster risk. Regional fire risk was predicted utilizing information diffusion mathematical model, fire happening probability of research region under different risk level in future years was obtained, which will help corresponding fire prevention measures to be established by government and enterprise safety management department, to make sure taking precautions against calamity.