The Forecast Model Of Mine Water Discharge's Research About Coal Mining Area In Shanxi Province

There are two main types about the mine water inflow forecasting model: The model based on the sudden disaster prediction and the model based on the trend of inflow forecast. At home and abroad, the forecasting models played their advantage in the prediction for the disaster, most of the models depended on the detailed information and much data on geological, hydrological, meteorological, coal mining and the model was often very complex, their accuracy is not high. The model based on disaster prediction can be used to trends prediction, and they can meet the accuracy requirements.In the paper, with a great deal of literature and detailed data available, comprehensive and meticulous descriptions on the Shanxi mine water and utilization were put forwards; Different ways of utilization for different types of mine water were discussed; Detailed discussions and comprehensive analysis on the impact of the various factors of mine inflow were given out, especially on the different prediction model of mine water inflow; and the GM(1, 1) model based on inflow trend of the water was gave out.The mine inflow is affected by complex factors, such as hydrology, geology, meteorology, mining conditions, which includes many sub-factors. The mine inflow shows great randomness and chance because these factors influence each other, resulting difficult to forecast mine inflow. The grey system theory has advantage of application in mine inflow because of its characters. The raw data was processed by the theory in this paper, whose purposes are to establish a model to provide intermediate information and to weaken the volatility of raw data.In this paper, the model of GM (1.1) was established by using the theory of grey, which base on comparing and analyzing each kind of forecast techniques. The model is a dynamic forecast model which strikes up by using the theory and method of gray system and support by the C program language. Contrast with other forecast models, it has the advantages of simple structure, calculation easy, broader applicability, and higher reliability.In this paper, a trend forecast of mine water in different mines in Shanxi province were made by applying the model. The results of the prediction are up to 314.382 million m~3 for the mine water in the main state mines and regional mines in Shanxi province. Judging by the accuracy, there were one group result indicating "disqualification", one group indicating "disqualification", others indicating "good" or "excellence" between 18 group results. It indicates that the model of the mine trend forecasting has a good reliability and practicality as well as provides the data for utilization of the mine water resources.