Dynamic Characteristic Analysis And Prediction Of Water Inflow In Laoyingshan Coal Mine

At present,there are still large errors in the prediction of mine water inflow.According to the inaccurate data of mine water inflow forecast value,mining often increases the probability of mine water disaster accidents.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the water inflow of coal mine accurately.Taking Laoyingshan Coal Mine as an example,on the basis of sorting out and analyzing the geological and hydrogeological data of the mining area,collecting the meteorological and hydrological data and mining information of the mining area,this paper analyses the characteristics of the mine water inflow in Laoyingshan Coal Mine,and uses COMSOL Multiphysics numerical simulation software and grey GM(1,2)prediction model respectively to predict the mine water inflow in the mining area,and the following research results are obtained:(1)Analyse the relationship between the dynamic change of water inflow and rainfall,and the dynamic change of coal mining in Laoyingshan Coal Mine.Use Matlab software to carry out correlation analysis and residual analysis,and further use SPSS software to carry out significant analysis.The analysis shows that the dynamic change of mine water inflow varies with the dynamic change of rainfall,and is less affected by coal mining.(2)On the basis of fully recognizing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the mining area,a numerical model for predicting the mine water inflow in Laoyingshan Coal Mine is established by using COMSOL Multiphysics numerical simulation software,and monthly water inflow in 2014 is predicted.It provides a basis for the prediction of mine water inflow in Laoyingshan Coal Mine in the future,and also provides some reference for the future use of COMSOL Multiphysics software for three-dimensional geological simulation in related fields.(3)Based on the analysis of the dynamic change of mine water inflow with rainfall,taking the water inflow sequence of coal mine as the main behavior sequence and the rainfall sequence as the influence factor sequence,the grey GM(1,2)model is established to predict the water inflow of coal mine.Through calculation,the average relative error of the model is 0.0387,and the precision of the model is 0.9613.The model fits well and the precision is reliable.