Study On Evaluation And Prediction Of Water Quality In Qinyijiang River WuHu Area

Qinyijiang River is a first-degree branch of the Yangtze River. It comes from Anhui southern mountain, cross eleven cities, last, into the Yangtze River. There are three drinking protection areas lies on the downstream of Qinyijiang River, it affect the drinking satety of more than 1,000,000 of the population. So, it is importing that studying evaluation and prediction of water quality, managing water environment, improving water quality and raising sustainable development.First, articles abstract to eight pollution sources, the result of evaluation: the main of point is Shuangdoumen, Yuanzeqiao and Huajingqiao, percentage of 18.93%,18.63%,18.21%. The main pollution factor is P, percentage of 66.75%, the factor has been polluted seriously.Second, articles evaluate water quality of Qinyijiang River wuhu area using three methods: single-factor, fuzzy math and BP artificial neural networks. Comparing the difference and using conditions of all kinds of methods. single-factor method is simple and strict, fuzzy math methods is comprehensive and clear, BP artificial neural networks is procedural and accurate.Last, choiced mechanism and without considering mechanism to predicte water quality: Building one-dimensional water quality prediction model about CODcr, perdicte water quality from 2008 to 2020, the relative error is 6.83%. Building water quality prediction model based on BP artificial neural networks, the relative error is 5.20% based on space, 8.78% based on time.