Application Of Fuzzy And Fault Tree On Fire Accident Analyse

As extensive use of technology equipment and electrical equipment in modern society, various fire accidents happened continuously. It brought about huge disaster to people's production and living. High incidence of fire accidents and the severity of the consequences of fire makes the security situation more severe. Thus, the community attaches great importance to research on fire. It is imperative to improve and study the technical and management practices. This paper used the principle of security engineering and analysis methods and combined the fault tree and fuzzy mathematics to analyze the various risk factors that caused fire incidents comprehensively and done Importance Analysis to put forward the effective prevention and control measures.First of all , this paper described the traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) which is the Safety System Analysis of a very important method and is widely used in the analysis of all accidents, the probability of each event is usually accurate in the traditional Fault Tree Analysis. In fire accident analysis system, some of the probability of each basic event is usually determined by statistical data, conception of another events is the vague and fuzzy .these factors are often uncertain and ambiguous, so there is no statistical data .traditional fault tree analysis is difficult to resolve these problems.Second, this paper introduced the method of fuzzy mathematics and its application in the fire assessment. Fuzzy mathematics is not only simple, easy to understand the characteristics, but also can solve the actual system in the fire there is ambiguity problem. But it also has its own shortcomings. It is inconvenient to use, such as used in the fire of such a complicated system, the calculation will inevitably become very large.Then, based on analysis of advantages and disadvantages of the traditional fault tree analysis and fuzzy theory, this paper introduced the theory of fuzzy mathematics into the traditional fault tree analysis. Fuzzy theory is an effective tool that can solve the difficult problem of probability theory. According to fuzzy mathematics theory these basic events that there are no statistical information and the accurate values of failure probability are difficult to be obtained can be considered a failure probability of fuzzy data that is characterized by fuzzy probability of basic event probability .This is combination of both organic advantages. Some documents used Normal fuzzy numbers, Triangular fuzzy numbers, Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to characterize the probability of end events .As the Triangular fuzzy is clear and easy to calculate, this paper used Triangular fuzzy model to describe the probability of end event in the fault tree and converted probabilistic data into triangular fuzzy probability, then obtained the fuzzy probability of top event distribution through Triangular fuzzy and gate algorithm. This paper obtained the fuzzy importance of each basic event through Median method and arrayed the top event failure factors to identify the main factors that affected the accident and proposed effective measures that prevent and control the top events take place. Formed scientific method of fuzzy fault tree analysis through combining the fuzzy mathematics and fault tree analyse .Finally, this paper used fuzzy fault tree analysis method to analyze the concrete fire example of the for Qian Beitun of Taiyuan. The results showed that the fuzzy fault tree analysis method has good flexibility and adaptability of the fire and it has great practical value.