Study On Carbon Emission Prediction And Reducing Path In Yunnan Minority Areas

Yunnan minority areas have rich resources and brilliant minority culture. Its tourism is also renowned for China and foreign country. In recent years, its economic develop a lot and material standards of people here is rapidly rising. At the same time, the ecological environment has been greatly damaged and carbon emission is escalating everyday. The party’s 18 report first proposed the blueprint that is promote green development, cycle development, low-carbon development and build beautiful China. This requires Yunnan minority areas must take the road of sustainable development of low-carbon economy in future.Due to the problem of incomplete information and less sample in carbon emissions system, this paper chose the GM(1.1) model from grey theory to forecast Yunnan minority areas and eight autonomous prefecture’s carbon emissions from 2015-2020, the prediction result shows that by the end of 2020, the carbon emissions in Yunnan minority areas will grow fifty percents compared with 2014 and movers is quite different in different autonomous prefectures. The results of the U-shaped line show that carbon emissions and economic growth is in dilated "negative decoupling" state in Yunnan minority areas and there is no turning point in the near future. So We use population, per capita GDP, tertiary industry ratio, urbanization, energy consumption intensity to establish STIRPAT model, and respectively use ridge regression and partial least squares regression to solve the problem of multicollinearity.The results of two regression method is similar, so we can know that population is the biggest driver of carbon emissions growth in Yunnan Minority Areas, followed by per capita GDP and urbanization, energy consumption intensity and the ratio of the tertiary industry can effectively control the growth of carbon emissions. Based on the results of empirical analysis, We put forward five emission reduction pathways: enhance the quality of the population, promote minority honest view of nature; take the development of urban and countryside as a whole, promoting new low-carbon urbanization; optimize the energy structure, actively develop renewable energy; optimize industrial Structure, improve the quality of tertiary industry development; improve environmental protection laws and mechanisms, start to carry out some low-carbon pilot work.