The Research Of Vehicle Volume Forecasting And Route Optimization Technology In Intelligent Transportation System

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) are state-of-the-art approaches based on electronic technology, information technology, sensor technology and system engineering technology in mitigating traffic congestion, enhancing safety, and improving quality of environment. It is a real-time, accurate, effective traffic management system. And the accurate, reliable traffic forecasting information is the foundation and the key to ITS subsystem such as urban traffic control system; the way optimization is also the core technology to the urban traffic guidance system and vehicle navigation system. Therefore on the basis of consulting massive literature and the related documents material, the article has made thorough analysis and research to the two key questions in ITS, the main work contains the following several aspect:(1) On the basis of discussing the present research situation of short-time traffic flow forecasting technology, the common forecasting model was summarized and the analyzed, and superiority and flaw of each model was pointed out. In view of the fact that the combination forecasting technology has become the trend of development in transportation information forecast domain, the article establishes one combination forecasting model by fusing the BP neural network and ARIMA. During enhancing forecasting precision, but also has guaranteed the forecasting stability. Finally the simulation analysis to the actual traffic flow data has carried on through MATLAB and the SPSS platform, the result demonstrates that the algorithm is feasible and usable.(2) On basis of analyzing basic algorithm and each kind of heuristic algorithm in route optimizing, pointed out the necessity that provides the alternative way for the travelers. In view of the fact that what the traditional inferior short-path searching algorithm solves is from the beginning to the end all the way. The searching region never changes, so the efficiency is low. The article proposed one better multiple-path algorithm based on the dijkstra. Finally the example simulation to some region of the Zhengzhou road network is carried on, the result has proved this algorithm is feasible and the superior.(3) Uniting ITS's important subsystem--vehicle navigation system, on basis of discussing the system's frame constitution and each module's function, emphatically analyzed the status and influential role that the traffic flow forecasting and the way optimization acts in VNS.