Research And Realization Of Power Load Prediction Based On Grey Model

In electric power system planning, load forecasting is very important for the safe economical running of electric power system and the development of state economy.This thesis firstly introduces the importance of power load forecasting, gives a brief analysis on characteristics of different power load and makes a summary of power load forecasting. Then, it is thorough research into grey load forecasting mechanism. In this thesis, the forecasting model is based on GM(1,1). The localization of grey forecasting model is found and the improved method is derived.On the basis of traditional Grey Model, the article improves Grey Model based particle swarm optimization. At last, a power load prediction simulation system based on Grey Theory has been designed and accomplished in this paper which takes the Lab VIEW Toolbox as development tools. The simulation system can validate the feasibility and validity of the improved prediction model, and can satisfy the actual needs in some concerning departments to provide scientific theory and techniques supports much more conveniently for its prediction works. It applied into an area's Power System in the Guizhou province to predict the future power load in the province. The results show that:firstly, Grey Prediction Model is of simple process and effective practicality. It could provide scientific theory thoughts for the concerning governments; secondly, the improved one has high precision and less prediction errors; last but not least, it shows that the prediction system of power load based on Grey System Theory is stable and practical, and it could offer some worthwhile references for the work of power load prediction in the Power System in future.