Study On Water Demand Forecasting And Water Supply Policies Of Tangshan

With social and economic development and the quickening course of urbanization, urban water consumption is increasing which lead to a worsening circumstance of water shortage. It is an important problem to the development of every city that how to exploit and utilize water resources reasonably to support the sustainable development of national economy and the sustainable improvement of people's living standards. To achieve this goal, urban water demand forecasting must be according to urban comprehensive planning and the development perspectives of national economy and at the same time, we should design water supply facilities construction and urban development strategy with a combination of the amount of available water resources. Therefore, to reach the technology of urban water demand is an important foundation work of great strategic value and instruction for urban sustainable development. It is important foundation work of urban sustainable development to study forecasting techniques and methods of city demand water, and it is important strategic value and significance for development of city.The urban water demand relates to urban size, population, national economy, living standard, the degree of perfection of infrastructures and so on. It is sophisticated to establish forecasting model of urban water demand accurately. Here we take an example for Tang Shan to establish and in-depth study forecasting model of urban water demand.First, we analyze the water consumption of Tang Shan, and study its pattern and then we establish forecasting model and study the influencing factor of urban water consumption.Second, we analyze the law of water consumption of Tang Shan, find to the time-relations of total water consumption, total water consumption per capita, comprehensive consumption per capita, water consumption per unit production value and so on.Now we establish Grey Model and study it primarily. Because the Grey Model have some defect in the long-term water demand forecasting, we improve the Grey Model by three ways. First, we divide the data according to the water consumption of Tang Shan, and then establish the Grey Model and figure out theα,μwhich are grey model coefficients. As the research object to the value ofα,μ, we establish the Grey Model again, and predict two groups of values ofα,μ. Second, according to innovation grey model, we predict all the values ofα,μ. The last, we take the values ofα,μinto the Grey Model and calculate the urban water demand. We can call this method as the innovation Grey Model increasing order evaluation. This method combines the advantages of Innovation Grey Model and the Grey Increasing Order Evaluation. We have used this method successfully in predicting the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020. The new forecasting model successfully fit the concave curve of the trend of Tang Shan's water consumption, bear down all defects of the Grey Model with a higher prediction accuracy. We find that using the comprehensive consumption per capita to forecast urban water demand is scientific and correct, especially when there are less historic data. Using this method, we predicted the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020 and contrast to the prediction of the innovation Grey Model increasing order evaluation then we found that its prediction have high accuracy.At last, after predicting the water demand of Tang Shan, we combine the water resource, the general planning and water supply capacity to make long-term water supply program. We analysis the current water supply network, and make rebuilding water supply program.In the article we present a scientific and reasonable new forecasting model, it not only predicted the water demand of Tang Shan in 2020 accurately, but also offered a new way to study the urban water demand forecasting model.