Study On Emergency Traffic Decision Support System Under The Major Disaster

In recent years, various disasters events at home and abroad showed a gradual upward trend, and with the rapid development of the national economy, expand of the scale of production and growing of social wealth, the losses caused by disasters are increasing every year. Therefore, under the background of the current economic globalization and Chinese harmonious society building, how to strengthen the government's capacity of dealing with types of emergencies, has become an urgent and important task of the governments at all levels.Against to the disaster, road traffic is the main form of transport security, but they are easily damaged. The disaster will cause the road traffic capacity steep drop and traffic demand surge. This situation can easily lead to large areas of traffic congestion and even gridlock, which would resulting that the work of rescue can not continue and further deterioration of the disaster. Therefore, under the conditions of a major disaster, the important prerequisite of rescue is to ensure the safety of the evacuation and rescue of traffic flow, and it plays an important role that to make sure the work of emergency transportation support quickly and effectively.With the sudden and non-repeatability of the major disasters, to do emergency traffic organization and decision of rescue operation in the large-scale cross-regional has not only large computation works, but also face lacks of experiences on decision-making, lacks of decision-making information and time of decision-making urgent. So, it is a typical complex system uncertainty decision problem. The goal of developing decision support system is to replace some or all intelligence work of the person by the computer system, and this is also an important way to solve the problem of decision-making.This article relies on the National High Technology Research and Development Program goal-oriented class project "Traffic organization support technology under the major disaster" under the conditions of major disasters, and it researched emergency transportation support network decision support system. Firstly, it analysis various types of demand on the construction of emergency transportation decision support system in-depth, and then proposed framework of the system. Afterwards, it established the knowledge base and related models of the system. Finally it realized the system integration development.The paper is divided into six chapters, and each chapter reads as follows: 1) Aiming at the problems of facing sudden disasters and the lack of experience in our country, it analysis the development status and trends of the emergency transport system and building of decision support systems at home and abroad. And make sure the purpose and significance of constructing the traffic emergency support system. Finally put forward the research ideas and thesis structure.2) According to the purpose and significance of the emergency traffic support decision support system construction, analysis the system demand from several aspects. Meanwhile, it made sure the main users of the system, the service principal, information requirements, functional requirements and other needs. Based on the analysis of system design principles, constructed the logical framework and the physical frame of the system. And then design the system function modules detailed. Finally, the support platform of the system was discussed.3) Firstly, on the basic of demands of emergency evacuation under the conditions of a major disaster, the paper establishes an emergency evacuation route choice model based on variational inequality algorithm. Then to solve the problem of transfer lots of persons, analysis the traditional form of bus scheduling and calculation methods, and release a public transportation network real-time vehicle scheduling model. Finally, compare several ways of publishing traffic information on the emergency, do some research focusing on the distribution of VMS. Propose an optimization model for VMS based on grey situation decision.4) Preliminary analysis the knowledge representation and reasoning of the emergency transportation decision support system. Propose an uncertainty knowledge reasoning method based on DS evidence theory. Then design the underlying database, model base and rule base method detailed, and establish the system knowledge base initially.5) Firstly introduce several mainstream methods of development and design of decision support system, and design development process of the system. Then provide the system interfaces from the data access interface, information display interface and control interface and other aspects. And finally customize the main function interface of the emergency transportation decision support system.6) Summarize the full-text content of the study, and present the results and innovations of the paper, moreover point out the inadequacies and further research of the study.