Analysis On Track Quality Index Of Beijing-Kowloon Railway Track In Jinan Railway Bureau And Its Prediction

With the increase in operating mileage of railway lines, train speeds and axle load in China, the impact force between railway track and wheel set gets more and more heavy. Along with the heavy impact force, track department is fousing on the changes of track geometry. In order to grasp the changing characteristic of the track geometry, this paper has developed the theory of track geometry changing which then can provide effective decision support to the track department.With the statistical analysis and data mining of the track inspection data which collected by the Rail Traffic Control and Safety of State Key Laboratory, author has developed the theory of changing characteristic of track geometry over the Beijing-Kowloon line from K430+000 to K460+000. According to this research, author proposed later that track geometry changes which calculated by TQI have three features:Periodic, multi-phase and exponential. Periodic means between two maintainence, the TQI grows from a small beginning into a larger one. On different periods, TQI value changes at differet rates, showing the characteristic of multi-phase change. On one change period, TQI values go slowly first, and then grow faster until the maintainence has done that presents the exponential change.On the basic of TQI change character, author has built the TQI predictive model over the Beijing-Kowloon line from K430+000 to K460+000. Meanwhile by applying this model, the author has tested many sections, and verified the predictive results. It shows that the results are more accurate. Based on the accuracy of the predictive results and according to the prediction results, the author obtained the development of maintenance scheduling to provide a wealth of technical support.This paper aims to such works that:a systematic analysis of the available data for the track geometry change; a statistical model; a model of TQI which applied to different infrastructure and length of sections for simulate the track geometry change; a detail error analysis of the prediction results for the Beijing-Kowloon line from K430+000 to K460+000; a wealth of technical support for the maintenance scheduling. This paper presents 71 pictures,31 data tables and 34 references.