Scenario Planning And Its Application In China Railway High-Speed Strategic Planning

On late June 2011, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will be formally launched. It is a major rail transportation hub linking the Chinese economic center and political center. Through a full two decades of planning, design and construction, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway witnessed the historic leap of China's railway. The high-speed railway has relieved capacity on the existing network, upgraded the relevant industrial, promoted regional economic development along the line and improved people's lives.At present, China railway high-speed is quickly developing, but the uncertainty of market demand and security risks exist. With the rapid development of the socialist market economy, the high-speed railway development strategy has attracted unprecedented attention from the international academic, commercial and political circles. Ministry of Railways, the rail regulator and the manager of the railway companies, should make strategic plan for the high-speed railway.Considering the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty of future, this thesis introduces scenario planning into high-speed railway strategic planning in order to support the manager's decision. Scenario planning is a method based on the future, but also a strategic way of thinking. Scenario planning is the process of identifying the driving forces, developing possible future scenarios and making decisions in different scenarios. The aim of scenario planning is to enhance organizational learning and adaptability. Scenario planning is not prediction, but a series of rigorous scientific analysis methods and ways of thinking.Scenario planning is also an organizational learning method for strategy planning. The three strategy theories of strategy management can be integrated into a circle of organizational learning by scenario planning.This thesis fully expounds research status, characteristics and applications scope of scenario planning and studies the feasibility that scenario planning can be used into high-speed rail strategic planning by Ministry of Railways.Based on the limitations of scenario planning itself, the thesis finds a better way to build scenario planning methodology system. Scenario planning is based on systems theory and uncertainty theory with the ultimate aim of accelerating organization learning ability and involves many other information colleting and analysis methods of uncertainty, so that the scenario planning can be easily carried out.Then, the thesis applies the scenario planning in China railway high-speed development planning. This thesis analyzes the current decision problem of China railway high-speed and identifies the decision-making factors and driving force by content analysis and retrospective analysis. Thus, the thesis constructs initial scenarios and three representative scenarios of all possible scenarios are selected out for further study.Finally, this thesis concludes the shortcomings of case studies and gives some recommendations.The main innovations of this thesis are as follows. First, the thesis perfects the scenario planning methodology system. It is an integrated innovation. Second, the study of China Railway High-Speed strategic planning by scenario planning is an application innovation.