Risks Assessment Of Hazardous Materials Transportation By Mountains Road Based On Bayesian Network

The mountainous area of our country is extensive and beautiful, whose natural and mineral resources are distributed intensively, while the economic level and road conditions are relatively backward. In recent years, the amount of freight transported of all kinds of hazardous materials growth rapid with the economic development, social progress, and road mileage and network density of mountainous area significantly ascension, but security situation of the road transportation is still far from being satisfactory. As is shown in the survey, there is nearly 50% accident of transport of hazardous materials in mountainous, which inflict great damage on the surrounding area and increases the risk of people's lives and property. So, transportation security of transport of hazardous materials in mountainous got a lot of attention recently.In order to studying our country's accident characteristics and mechanism of hazardous materials transport in the mountain, and identifying system accident influence factor, we statistically analyzed 603 transport of hazardous materials incidents occurred in mainland China from 2008 to May 2010, containing 302 data in the mountains. We analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous materials transport incidents in consideration of the characteristics of environment and climate of mountain road combining with a mountain road environment and characteristics, and got influencing factors of mountain accidents. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the accident causes and expert experience, accident probability under the condition of drivers, car tank, road condition and the weather four parameters 48 different parameters joint combinations was obtained the probability of an accident prediction model was established based on Bayesian network. Through the accident statistics, and based on the accident probability model we further researched and amended each parameter and introduced time-varying correction factor, such as transmission time correction factor and transportation season correction factor, in order to achieve the effect of quantitative analysis of transportation risks. In this paper, severity of consequences of road hazardous materials transport accident was studied in casualties, property damage and environmental damage three aspects taking all kinds of hazardous materials transport accident emergency evacuation distance as damage radius, established accident consequences severity calculation model of our country hazardous materials transport in the mountain. Finally, risk evaluation model was established based on theory of social risk acceptability. Combining with a Shanxi's hazardous materials transport enterprises and their specific transportation route, we calculated the value of social risk according to the model, and carried on the appraisal.Through analyzing the evaluating results, we found that the model established has certain practicality.