Research On Deployment Strategy Of Contra-flow Lane Based On Cell Transmission Model Before Typhoon's Landing

Typhoon disaster, which is a frequent crisis to our seaboard cities, brings great casualty and financial loss. Before the typhoon disaster, it is necessary to establish policies on transport evacuation. From the angle of transportation planner, the dissertation analyses the operation of how to setting up contra-flow lane to satisfy the requirement of evacuation in the effective time before the landing of typhoon. Focusing on this subject, the dissertation has three parts as followed.First, the dissertation summarizes the forecast method of evacuation of transportation demand. The dissertation also analyses the influencing elements of evacuation demand, such as evacuation zone, evacuation population and evacuation vehicles under typhoon disaster. It brings out the principles of transportation zone part, provides the method of estimating the amount of evacuee and distribution, points out the methods of ensuring the amount of evacuated vehicles and the transportation choices. The papers introduces time-oriented evacuation loading curve and inducts ODE to explain the process of transportation evacuation distributing from the angle of time-oriented transportation demand to consider practical evacuation problem. Aiming at the survey of typhoon evacuation intention to inhabitants in Shenzhen, the paper simulates the forecasting process of evacuation transportation demand in city network.Second, based on the issue of setting up contra-flow lane before the landing of typhoon, the dissertation introduces cell transmission model to simulate the process of vehicle evacuation and queue in typhoon evacuation; it also concludes transmitting node-arc network into the cell network description of contra-flow lane set-up. Based on the analysis of classical cell linear programming model, the thesis gives optimal contra-flow lane model for evacuation according to SO transportation assignment, integrating time-oriented transportation evacuation demand and the method of one destination evacuation. The dissertation also designs simulated calculating network, and compare the effect of evacuation. It is easy to find the total network evacuation time decreases by 18.6% after employing contra-flow lane. The author also does the sensitivity analysis on model estimation according to the changes of evacuation demand.Last, the paper does a real case study. Integrating with the practical network of Baoan district in Shenzhen, the thesis uses the method of forecasting evacuation demand to make sure the influencing element in the evacuation zone. It also gives the distribution ratio of capacity in specific cell and confirms the size of contra-flow lane in relating evacuation road integrating with optimal model of setup of contra-flow lane.