Study On Risk Assessment Of Embankment Engineering Based On Vulnerability Curve Method

Levee project usually refers to the buildings along the shore of rivers, lakes and oceans; which function is flood control and water retaining. In China, levee project has played an important role in flood control engineering system; it also plays an important role in protecting people’s lives and property along shore. According to the report of the 2012 Water Census, the total length of levee projects reach up to 413,679 km.In China, existing levee projects mainly built in the 1950s. Limited by technical and economic conditions at that time, these levee projects exist some serious problems like low design requirements and construction standards, poor overall quality, and no proper management and maintenance.In addition, the life of many of levee projects has far exceeded its design beginning of the design as determined by operating years, and in the course beware of running and no proper maintenance and management, resulting in about a third of the current levee projects have safety problem and carsh risk.once some of these levee project occurred engineering accident, it will destroy the downstream people’s lives and property.Conventional definite valuation methods are difficult to take into account the uncertainty and variability of design variables of levee project, and can not fully characterize the exact extent of the security. For this reason we apply the analysis of various factors in levee project as a random variable, probabilistic risk probability theory into the levee project safety risk evaluation. Combined with the consulting project "Taihu Lake Basin flood risk evolution and adaptation of technology integration and application", this paper inquires into main theory of domestic and international geotechnical engineering accident risk. From the points of levee typical accident patterns and accident risk factors, we apply the Monte Carlo method to draw levee fragility curves as a tool to analyze the security status of the levee. The main contents of the study are as follows:(1) Conclude the current development of the basic theories of levee failure risk analysis at home and abroad, and give detailed introduction of several commonly used risk assessment methods of levee failure and some practical projects.(2) Explore the identification of the outburst risk factors of levee projects and the recognition of the destruction patterns.(3) Apply the Monte Carlo method to establish research methods levee fragility curve(4) combine with the Taihu Lake Basin levee projects establish typical fragility curve Taihu Lake BasinThe proposed method based on the fragility curve is scientific and feasible, it can more visually represent probability of failure levee crash, also can effectively determine the extent of the security for levee project. This method provides a scientific basis for reinforcement and management in levee project.