The Study On Model_Based Abrasion Method Of The Remain Life Time Prediction For Machine

The machine facility is the important part of element of economy of country. It takes up very great proportion. How to ensure the facility's normally running and prevent the big fault and prolong its using life time is a very important task that every country attention to. "The Remain Life Time Prediction"is a necessary of developing economy and running industry as a fatal task of modern industry. Now the research of the remain life time prediction of machine facility major in the remain life time prediction of single equipment. The method of prediction is mainly basis of through collecting data to analyze based on probability and mathematics statistic or based on the expand of the microcosmic crack for some component. There are not many researches for the remain life time prediction of entire facility system and have not meaning at large. There is necessary to study a kind of common method to predict the remain life time of entire facility. It has important meanings to advance the using efficiency of facility, build up dependability, reduce repairing fare and prolong using life time. There are many factors affecting the life time of machine facility. The effects of each other are very complexity. The factor of abrasion possesses great proportion in the ingredient of affecting the life time of machine facility. The abrasion life time is a mainly considered factor when predict the remain life time of machine facility. The method of predicting the remain life time of machine facility using computer to simulate the process of growing worse with finding the main factors that affect the process of growing worse according to the characters of the fault along with the time of the process of the machine facility has acquired definitely progresses. The system dynamics is used to predict the remain life time as the means of simulating the progress of growing worse because it can dispose the complex problem with simple, efficiency and simulate the entire system. There is some of the fuzzy on the defining standard of failure because the abrasion failure of machine facility is a consecutive and gradually failure. In order to predict the remain life time of the machine facility precisely the fuzzy judgement is used as complement on the basis of the using system dynamics to simulate the process of growing worse. The prediction of the remain life time of the machine facility will be exact relatively using the method combining the system dynamics with fuzzy judgement.