Research On Non-flood Season Runoff Forecasting Method In The Yellow River

Since the water in the Yellow River was operated and managed by the unified ways, the previous hydrological and meteorological data collecting, transmitting and information forecasting systems, which provided services to flood prevention of the Yellow River, couldn't have met the demands out and away from water resources unified operation in the Yellow River. Runoff forecast is an important basis of water operation. According to research the runoff forecasting method during non-flood season in the Yellow River and establish relevant system, more accurate and timely runoff forecast can be provided for water unified operation of the Yellow River, it is of important significance to optimize water operation and mitigate and relax the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and flow cutoff in the lower Yellow River. This paper analyzes the runoff changing laws and affected factors during non-flood season in the upper and middle Yellow River, and also indicates that the predominant influencing factors are previous runoff, precipitation, irrigating water, reservoir operation, air temperature, etc. Based on the analysis, the runoff volume during non-flood season and monthly and ten-day runoff forecasting models in the key stations on the main streamand tributaries of the upper and middle Yellow River, such as Tangnaihai, Hongqi, Zheqiao, Minhe, Xiangtang, Longmen, Huaxian, Hejin, Zhuangtou, Tongguan, Heishiguan, Wuzhi, Daicunba and so on, have been researched and developed. Furthermore the Yellow River runoff forecasting system during non-flood season also has been developed with Visual Basic Language in WINDOWS98 and provides required runoff forecast for water operation during non-flood season in the Yellow River.The developed runoff forecasting models and forecasting systems have been used in the practice and acquired perfect forecasting results, which provide important basis for water operation and management on the Yellow River and achieve perfect economic, social and ecological benefits.