Study On The Method Of Dynamic Prediction For Earthquake Damage Based On Time-Dependend Structure Resistance

The thesis bases on the existing method of prediction for earthquake damage,recurs to the theory of time-dependent attenuation in Structural reliability,considers the influence of earthquake actions and measures of seismicreinforcement to the resistance in reinforced concrete frame structures meantime,and puts forward a method about dynamic prediction for earthquake damage toreinforced concrete frame structures based time-dependent quality.The thesis expatiates at ponderance of earthquake disasters which happened in bigcities, the definition, and history, future trends of prediction for earthquake damageto buildings. The thesis narrates many kinds of current methods of prediction forearthquake damage to structures and development situation of research ontime-dependent quality, analyses merits and demerits of every method, points outimportance and characteristic of the thesis.In period of benchmark about structures design, the yield bending moment isselected as the resistance in reinforced concrete frame structures. Considering threefactors below, different computable measures and formulae of resistance can beselected according to different conditions, which is the main content of the thesis.Firstly, according to existing analysis ways of time-dependent quality at Structuralreliability and calculation of theories is given the declining model of the resistancein reinforced concrete frame structures under the action of materials, loads andenvironments, along with time dependent. Secondly, in order to consider theinfluence of the action of earthquake to the resistance, the essay adopts modifiedcoefficient of earthquake action to consider the declining disciplinarian that theresistance timely changes with action on different earthquake serial. Thirdly, bystudying the variety situation of the resistance of structures after seismicreinforcements, the expression on the resistance of building after seismicreinforcements set up.Computable measures of resistance can be applied in the field of prediction forearthquake damage. According as parameters of structures and building time,simplified measures are adopted to calculate the maximal structural ductile-ratesand the corresponding maximal displacements between elasticity-plasticity layers.On base of analysis in probability statistic characters of displacements between - II -摘要elasticity-plasticity layers, it is received mean value, mean square deviation andvariance coefficient of maximal displacements in a certain future year with acertain parameter of ground motion by analysis in swatches and is regarded as adeputy of statistic parameters in displacements between elasticity-plasticity layersabout reinforced concrete frame structures in the certain year. According to thequality of probability statistic with maximal time-dependent ductile-rates, usingcalculation method of probability of failure at reliability, it is found probability ofdifferent destroy states of reinforced concrete frame structures in a certain futureyear and then is formed dynamic matrix for earthquake damage.Dynamic prediction method which is established though the thesis is applied topredict the RC frames in Quanzhou. It shows that in future 30 years, average indexfor earthquake damage of RC frames buildings in Quanzhou will drop about 9to15percents, and this reflect the trend of earthquake damage of RC frames buildings inQuanzhou in future 30 year basically.