The Sequential Monte-Carlo Simulation And Reliability In Photovoltaic System

With the development of the solar cell and power electronics, photovoltaic system has grown up and become the main way on using the solar energy. Photovoltaic energy conversion is widely considered as one of the more promising renewable energy technologies which has the potential to contribute significantly to a sustainable energy supply and which may help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason there is a growing support from governments for photovoltaic R&D programs and market introduction schemes.Stochastic nature is the main difference between photovoltaic system and conventional energy. Because the time dependence characteristics of photovoltaic system enhance the instability of system, it is desired to grasp the work status at a given time-interval. This paper focuses attention on using probabilistic simulation to describe this stochastic nature, and adopts the Sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate each element status in photovoltaic system, and calculating responded reliability indices. Firstly, this paper considers the interaction among factors, which may have effect on the solar cell power output , the solar cell output power every hour is simulated in time sequence. And then, the paper simulates the work status and the failure status of each component in photovoltaic station, and puts forward the criterion to repair photovoltaic array, and calculates reliability indices of the stand-alone PV system. At last grid-connected PV system has also been studied, different random faults in line and protection which bring the change of operating patterns have been taken account for, indices of reliability and economics have been computed in distribution system.On the basis of algorithms study, a software package named "Photovoltaic system reliability analysis planning" is developed, which can be used for further research.