The Probability Theory And Stochastic Numerical Simulation Method And Its Application In The Sedimentation Prediction

In the numerical model used for calculating the sea environments and sedimentation at home and abroad, there is numerous uncertainty in the course of debugging the input data, determining experience coefficients, choosing the field data (wind speed, wave height and so on) and arranging the output data. This thesis analyzes the uncertainty and sensitivity of the wind speed that is the input data of the numerical model applying the existing wave-current-sedimentation numerical simulation model as the computational tool. Different data of the sedimentation depth are obtained by inputting different wind speed, which are predicted by Gumbel distribution. Using the "stochastic simulation technique with non-Guassian multivariate random variables" the dissertation predicts the sudden sedimentation with various risk probability and lifetime of structures. The job of this thesis includes the following content mainly:Applying the existing wave-current-sedimentation numerical simulation model as the computational tool, regard northern harbour Huanghua port as the instance to analyze the uncertainty and sensitivity of the wind speed that is the input data of the numerical model. Different data of the sedimentation depth are obtained by inputting different wind speed, and the data of the sedimentation depth are predicted by Gumbel distribution.Considering the serious " sudden sedimentation " phenomenon after a strong wind of Huanghua port, the effective wave energy are proposed to calculate the effective wave energy after each storm from 1991 to 2001. The sedimentation amount after each strong wind is put out with relations of wave energy and sedimentation. Probability analysis of the sudden sedimentation and yearly sedimentation are carried on, which are suitable for the decision making in planning and designing of coastal engineering.Using the "stochastic simulation technique with non-Guassian multivariate random variables", the sudden sedimentation with various risk probability and lifetime is predicted.