| Flood disaster is the most ordinary natural disaster in the world, it does great harm to the humankind. In the management of drainage basin flood control, multi-reservoirs system is the most important control work, for it can store floodwater,deter flood,stagger flood-peak,lower flood-peak. It is very important for the multi-reservoirs system to schedule combined. Optimization-schedule of multi-reservoirs system is treating the multi-reservoirs system as a whole system, using theory and methods of system-engineering science and optimization method to solve its schedule problem, making a wide foreground for the control flood benefit of multi-reservoirs system.This paper is to study on the real-time optimization-schedule combined of drainage basin, according to the aim of the research, we decide to couple the Large Scale System Decomposition-Coordination Method (LSSDCM) and GM(1,1) Model. Firstly, use Rainfall-Water Model to forecast the incoming floodwater, according the known incoming floodwater, mainly study on how to better LSSDCM and GM(1,1) Model and how to use them in flood control schedule well.From the point of all drainage basin flood control, to reach the optimization schedule, it requires maximum of the total pre-kept ability. This paper uses the Large Scale System Optimization Theory, using system-theory,Gray- Mathematics,Fuzzy- Mathematics,water-resource as technical measure, and tries to find the optimization of the drain basin's total flood control ability. According to the physical geography,socio-economy,environment and flood control ability and so on natural status and character, schedule the multi-reservoirs system and the river combined.Large Scale System Optimization Theory is a rising subject to settle Large Scale System (LSS) optimization decision-making in 1970s, it decomposes the LSS into some subsystems, forming successively structure, then coordinate them under the strict of total aim and restriction condition. Use exists optimization methods to achieve all subsystems part maximum, coordinate all subsystems to get the whole LSS optimization as a whole according to the LSS's total aim. LSS has characters of multidimensional,indefinitely,large scale,complicated structure,integrated function,numerous factors, Decomposition-Coordination Method almost represent all aspects of the LSS theory .Multi-reservoirs system is an interactional and complex LSS. Now, LSS optimization theory has been attached great importance to in the area of hydro-power plants reservoirs system optimization, but it is still underway in the flood control reservoirs. This paper will start with the basic theory of LSSDCM, research how to simplify and better it, and apply it in the real time flood control of the drainage basin.Gray system theory achieves correct understand and effective control of the system's function character, and pick up useful information, mainly through dealing with known "partial" information of the system. Its principle is not to look for statistical rule from many data, but to use measure of generate data, make wild original data become strong well-regulated generate data, then to forecast or other purpose. This paper will start with precision of the routine GM(1,1) model, work on how to better it, and use the bettered GM(1,1) model to forecast the incoming runoff process, make a prepare for set up a model of river and multi-reservoirs schedule combined.This paper aims at the specialty of drainage basin real time flood control, discusses normal use of routine LSSDCM in flood control, brings forward simplified and mended model, and couples it with bettered GM(1,1) model, makes a river and multi-reservoirs schedule combined model. The model works on how the reservoirs stagger flood-peak,lower flood-peak reciprocally to lighten the flood control pressure of the lower reaches and let the river get through flood reason, on the precondition of all reservoirs safe. This paper also uses the model in upper of the NanPanJiang River and gets an excellent resul... |
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