Flood Forcasting And Dispatching Based On Mid-and-short-range Rainfall Forcasting

With reference of the drought situation in Luanhe area, the paper, combined with modern flood control systems in our bureau which are mainly mid-and-short-range meteorologic forcasting system and rainfall pattern telemetry systems, eventually realizes risk dispatching in flood season for profit promotion of the reservior by making use of the duration of hydrology forcasting.After the accomplishment of "the Scale Mathematic Forcasting System in North China" researched by national meteorologic center, the surface data forcasting can cover Beijing and its surrounding areas, which includes rainfall amount forcasting every three hours and a 36-hour-forcasting at 00 universal time every day. To increase the forhead time of the reservior, the mid-and-short-range meteorologic forcasting results should be introduced into hydrology forcasting. Then the data collected by the telemetry systems are used to to ajust the upper forcasting. The dispatching work of Panjiakou Reservior are better conducted with the increased forhead time.The existing meteorologic forcasting and hydrology forcasting should be used to reduce the lose caused by flood to the minimum degree in flood dispatching. The characteristic of the flood in Luanhe area is that flood season is usually at the first ten days of July and August and the flood event is between 1 and 2. The increased forhead time,which is accqured by fully considering the mid-and-short-range meteorologic forcasting results and hydrology forcasting results according to the maximal discharge and the highest water line permitted. The water line before flood season could be increased appropriately and the previous dispatching method of the middle dam should be changed to use forhead time before flood comes.The assembling set of the Panjiakou reservior could be used to increase discharge and pre-discharge part of surplus flood to reduce the water line step by step. The main content of the paper is to exert fully the role of the Panjiakou Reservior which is an incomplete adjustive reservoir in floodwater utilization and resolve the contradiction of the flood control and water storage.