Study On Reliability Analysis Method In Seepage Stability Of Embankment Dam

Study on reliability analysis method in seepage stability of embankment dam is needed for deeply development of dam risk analysis technique, and its key content is confirmation of probability characteristic of basic random variable, foundation of function and calculation of reliability index.In the paper the theory of reliability has been summarized, and the program JC.FOR for calculation of reliability index has been compiled. The uncertainty factors which affect seepage stability have been analyzed on detail from randomicity, fuzziness, fuzziness and randomicity. Probability characteristic of permeability and impervious strength have been discussed on the basis of repetition experiment of sand. The relationship between permeability and equivalent grain diameter "d20" and porosity "n" has been derived. Through seepage characteristics of embankment dam, the methods of reliability analysis for embankment seepage stability bave been established by means of observed information and calculation respectively.At last, the reliability analysis of upright seepage stability on downsteam toe of Bailang river reservoir dam has been made, and the consistency and reiability of two methods have also been discussed.