Application Of Stochastic Modeling In The Calculation Of Design Flood Of The Middle Reaches Of Hanjiang

Middle Route of Project of South-to-North Water Transfers affects ecological environment. The hydroelectric project of Cuijiaying is the ecological compensatory of the middle reaches of Hanjiang. With the step resources upstream adjusting the flood, computing design flood on the section of the hydroelectric project of Cuijiaying becomes more and more complicated.This paper uses the stochastic theory to study flood area composition. The main results are:(1)The typical disaggregating model and multi-dimension auto-aggressive model are built to study their applicability on the flood composition in the condition of stochastic modeling. Conclusion is got that the parametric models do some simplicity and supposition about the hydrological phenomenon. The two models can content the need of the practice. The two stochastic models are feasible and satisfied.(2) This paper tries to establish artificial neural network series model, as a non-parametric model, and counts the design flood ,and makes a comparison between two kinds models. The study shows that non-parametric model does not do any simplicity and assuming about the study object, so it is firmer and more applicable.(3) The results of parametric models provide new projects for produce. Artificial neural network series models break a new approach for stochastic modeling in computing design flood.