Research And Development Of The Central Flood Control Decision Support System For Flood Forecasting Subsystem

Central Flood Control Decision Support System is a huge national flood controldecision support system developed by Water Conservancy Ministry and NationalFlood Control and Anti-drought Headquarters in order to satisfy the need of them toflood control and dispatch. The Flood-forecast Sub-system is a very important part ofthe system and it is the base of flood control decision.This dissertation elaborates the flood-forecast system based on the studying onthe theories, models and practices of flood forecast. Especially, the dissertationstudied the fundamental structure of the models of flood-forecast, and then bringforward a new method to build new model named "Model Structure─ParameterMethod". This method plus the computer technology make it possible to build flood-forecast model automatically for all the forecast stations of each valley in China.We can use Model Structure─Parameter Method to build models in the systemand the user can choose the appropriate model based on the character of his valley. Allthe parameters was worked out and optimized by the system using auto-optimizemethod. This avoided the subjective mistakes by man and saved a lot of time.The system was developed in standardized and modularized methods, andprovided standard input and output interface. It has quite a wide-open character. Wecan add new model for system at any time.The functions of the system are comprehensive, including data pre-processing,build forecast models, real-time flood forecast, real-time emendation forecast, file-editand information inquiry and so on.In the end, the system used Changjiang Sanxia as an example, and built someflood-forecast models for it, the mimic calculation also been given. The result showsthat the models built by the system have quite high precision, and it can fit the need ofthe real-time flood-forecast.