The Prediction Of The Electric Power Load Based On Grey Theory And BP Neural Network

This article introduces the principle,origins and electric power load forecasting and forecasting abstract of domestic and trend predict the realm of electric power load. Introduces current in common use and a few estimative method, to recently lead into the gray estimative theories of the electric power system and the basic principle of the one of its models does the detailed research. This article has proposed leaning towards and predicting grey models and optimum dimension predicting grey models on the basis of the analysis of the traditional predicting models. On the basis of the thing that simply predict the model little greyly, combining and using the optimum dimension predicting grey models, the author has proposed again that the optimum dimension leaning towards the grey models of predicting a little. Predication showed by the instance , there is some improvement in predicting the accuracy comparing with the traditional grey prediction models in two kinds of new prediction models which this article has put forward. On the basis of the thing that the theory has analyzed the grey theory and neural network theory, This article offer the method after putting forward the electric power load based on grey theory and BP neural network. This method uses different grey models to predict the selected neural network separately at first, and chooses the optimum value as the training samples to train the neural network, then utilizes and trains the good neural network to predict. Originally the predicative model adopts the method that the grey theory combining with BP artificial neural network, have drawn the advantage of the two, the prediction risk of avoiding the single predicative model. The instance of prediction from electric consumption load of one month and the whole year of 2003 in rural and suburbs of Harbin can see that the accuracy and the stability have a great improvement comparing to other predicative models. The three means of prediction brought forward in the article have obtained certification by some leading cadres concerned and business departments which have a great instruction and applied meaning to electric enterprises to process working out plans as well as the production revolved.