The Research Advancements For Estimating Methods Of Probable Maximum Precipitation/Probable Maximum Flood And Its Application Study On Qingjiang

Possible maximal flood is the designed flood standard of the hydroelectric engineering and nuclear power plant, which affront very serious dam falling. Many internal and overseas meteorologist have done much research, exploration and practice on the estimation of Possible Maximal Precipitation and Flood (PMP/PMF), they have get great success, and accumulate valuable experience. This thesis's main job and conclusion are:(1) Based on reviewing and summarizing the internal and overseas relational literatures, summing up the research headway of the estimation of PMP/PMF, evaluating the estimation method's characteristic and applying condition.(2) Based on analyzing the Qingjiang basin rainstorm's characteristic, studying out its method and precept on the estimation of PMP/PMF. Zooming in local rainstorm, displacing the rainstorm, adopting the time-area-depth summarization to estimate the 24 hours and 3 days' PMP upward the Shuibuya engineer. To get 7 days flood-flow, combing a common rainstorm after the maximal possible estimate 3 days precipitation by displacing the rainstorm and adopting the time-area-depth summarization. The result shows: the 24 hours and 3 days' PMP value computed by time-area-depth summarization is maximum. The 24 hours' PMP value computed by zooming in local rainstorm and 3 days' PMP value computed by displacing the rainstorm are both minimum.(3) Adopting the output-conflux count method on the PMP condition, calculated the PMF process of the dam. The result shows: estimated by the time-area-depth summarization, the PMF flood-peak flows' reckoned by "69.7" and "71.6" rain type are both big. The PMF flood-peak flows' reckoned by PMP which is estimated by zooming-in local rainstorm method are small.(4) Evaluating the estimated PMP/PMF result from method and information, comparing with Chinese big flood time-area-depth note, 24 hours possible maximal point rainfall and our possible maximal flood result in some hydroelectric engineering. The result is reasonable, it can reach the engineering design's needs.