System Identification Model Investigation Of Arch Dam Deformation Forecasting

The analysis of monitoring data of the dam deformation is aimed to check designfruit, supervise the quality of construction and understand the regulation of variousphysical change of the dam. All these provide valuable information for theconstruction, management and safety operation of the dam. Analyzing the regulationof dam deformation caused by various influence factors, ascertaining the qualitativeand quantitative relation between deformation and influence factors and putting realtime monitoring into practice are the main issues which dam engineers concern with.Founding a forecasting model of deformation monitoring plays an important role inanalyzing dam work state and observing dam safety operation.System identification theory is introduced to analyze and study the arch damdeformation monitoring data in this paper. Based on referencing a great deal ofcorrelative literature, the main achievements are following:The author introduces the fundamental and the corresponding software of thesystem identification theory, expounds the possibility of analyzing dam monitoringdata through system identification theory.The main influence factors of the arch dam deformation are anatomized. Basedon analysis of the monitoring data (including the temperature and water level of theLijiaxia arch dam reservoir region), the regulation that presents the change oftemperature and water level is studied in detail.Using the Finite Element Method and regression analyzing method, the authorfound the affirmatory model of the Lijiaxia arch dam water level portion and separatethe horizontal displacement caused by water load from the total displacement, and thesatisfactory resolution is got.The system identification theory is applied in analyzing the dam monitoring datafor the first time in this paper. System identification model of temperature effect issuccessfully founded whose input is the air temperature of reservoir region and outputis displacement from temperature effect (including time-effect). Eventually we gainthe system identification model of arch dam deformation and apply it to Lijiaxia archdam.The paper takes various factors that can cause the arch dam deformation intoaccount synthetically, for instance, water level, air temperature, time-effect and so on.A system identification analytical model of arch dam deformation is founded whosemulti-input are water level, air temperature and time-effect, single-output is arch damdeformation. The model takes influence factors into account comprehensively andprecision is high, so it can be applied to monitoring and forecasting.Practice proved it is feasible to found dam deformation monitoring modelapplying system identification theory. It can act as a means that can analyze damdeformation monitoring data. As research of this method develop, it is suggested thatthis method be introduced to the deformation monitoring analysis of other dam forms.