Cause-effect Model Of Arch Dam Deformation Monitoring

The high concrete arch dam is a main type of dam, and more and more attention is paid to its safety problem. Based on the combination of Dam engineering theory, cause-effect, Analysis Fuzzy Reasoning Approach and so on, the comprehensive inference methods are studied in this thesis and the cause-effect model of arch dam deformation monitoring is also established. By use of the model, the relationship between the arch dam deformation and the cause of deformation is discussed in-depth. The main contents are as follows.(1)The cause of arch dam deformation is analyzed. And the cause set and the effect set are established. Based on the physical and mechanical principle, the mechanism of Cause-effect is studied.(2)The technique which combines cause-effect diagram, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics is studied. Considering the relative importance degree of every causes of deformation, the importance degree cause-effect diagram is put forward and proved through a project example.(3)The case-based reasoning method (CBR) is introduced to analyze the cause of dam deformation. And a cause-effect model that combining the CBR and traditional regression model is established. By using the model, the cause of Feng Tan arch dam's deformation is analyzed.(4)The key technique which combines the Fuzzy Reasoning and Rough Sets is studied. On the base of observation data, the deformation forecasting problem is discussed. In addition, the discretization methods based on Rough Sets is studied in-depth and the calculation program is also programmed.