Risk Analysis For Reservoir Operation Of Wan'an

Nowdays, many reservoirs are facing the increasingly outstanding contradictions between flood control and generating electricity, storing water and generating electricity, how to Solve these contradictions, raising the level of developing operation management, and gaining a better social and economic benefits ,which are becoming to an important problem to be solved urgently. Taking The research of Wan'an reservoir of JiangXi province for example ,This thesis has focused on the risk of storing water and generating electricity is caused by the uncertainty of the reservoir inflow in the operation of the reservoir .The main works and contributions of the study was stated as follows:(1)Based on the actuality of the research, the paper has summarized the definition of the risk of reservoir operation, the object of risk analysis and the method of research, and also pointed out the shortages of risk analysis on the theory and method.(2)According to different targets and compartmentalizings, the paper has classed the reservoir operation, introduced the common models and measures of reservoir operation .Combining with the connect conditions, the paper established a optimal long-term operation model of Wan'an reservoir, while giving attention to firm capacity. According to the model, the plan's long- term benefit of the different flood seasons operating level was gained. Analysing the result of calculation, we find that long-period average generating electricity was closely connected with the main flood season and the later flood season's operating level, from the view of benefits of electric power generation ,and enhancing the main flood season's operating level is more efficiency.(3)The thesis set the main flood season operating level and later flood season operating level as corresponding variable, different scheme of water level's varying process and time interval's generating electricity operation function has been gained by optimal operation model. The function has two characteristics: firstly, he main flood season, the later flood season and non-flood season have different generatingelectricity operation functions; Secondly, every time interval(month or a period of ten days ),the generating electricity operation function was composed of several linear equations. The output increased as the available water added, to a certain extent, because of the reduction of reservoir level, the overflow discharge will increase, the water head will be lacking but the output will reduce instead .(4)Two kinds of method describing the stochastic character of reservoir inflow have been discussed. One is that reservoir inflow is subject to Perison-m distribution without considering inflow forecast available. Another is that reservoir inflowinformation Q*is given with considering forecast error which is subject to normaldistribution. According to stochastic simulation by MC, the risk of storing water and generating electricity are gained .The research indicate: In the main flood seasons, the risk of storing water with reservoir inflow information is less than without inflow forecast available, and the risk of generating electricity with reservoir inflow information is less than without inflow forecast available. In the later flood season, the risk of storing water is less than the risk of generating electricity with and without inflow forecast available. With inflow forecast available influences on the risk of storing water more than the risk of that without inflow forecast available.