Study On The Method Of Risk Assessment Of The Levees

The cause of levee risk is complex. At present, no ideal methods are found to evaluate levee risk. Based on the risk analysis model of the levees, the method of assessment is studied in this paper. The main contents are described as follows:(1) The risk factors of the levees material, construction, operation, and daily maintenance etc are analyzed. Taking typical levee accident model as example, levee risk factors are mined, and then network system of risk factors analysis is established.(2) The qualitative risk factor is quantified by introducing blind data. Index consistent problem of judgment matrix is improved in analytic hierarchy process by using G1 to calculate weighting. Based on the quantification and weighting of risk factors, the risk analysis model of risk factors combination is established.(3) Based on general reliability theory, finite element calculation model and rigid body limit equilibrium method, the risk analysis models of levee overtopping , seepage failure and slide instability failure are constructed individually. The precision of random risk analysis model of seepage failure is improved by using incipient fault value.(4) The loss calculation of levee failure impact from loss of life, economy and environment are analyzed. And then the criterion of loss severity degree is discussed accordingly. Finally, the risk assessment criterion is presented.(5) According to certain levee section of yellow river ,the risk degree is analyzed. On the basis of the analysis result, a preliminary evaluation for the levee is made.