Study On The Methods And Forecasting System Of Construction Risk In The Early Stage Of Deep Excavation Engineering

Some characteristics of the deep excavation engineering is large risk, long time limit, great construction difficulty, and so on. So the research on the construction risk, specially qualitative and quantitative analysis and forecasting of the potential risk during the construction, has been hot point in the geotechnical engineering.In the base of the deep excavation engineering and risk theory, the essay has mainly talked about this problem and tried to give a solution to it. The abstract is just as bellows:Firstly, the essay collected 340 accident examples of the deep excavation engineering in China and analyzed the type and cause of the accidents, then obtained the statistical result of leading mistake percent between the construction units, designing units, building units, reconnaissance units, supervising units and measuring units.Secondly, the essay summarized three methods of the risk analysis, appraised their limitations respectively, and developed the theory in the base of the fuzzy synthesis deciding theory, which broke away from the dependability theory. The method chose the safe factor and the scale of the maximal displacement and the depth of the excavation as the index of judgement.Thirdly, in the base of the above theory the essay established the database, developed the analysis and forecasting system of the construction risk of the deep excavation engineering, which made the risk judge easy, simple, convenient.Finally, the essay analyzed the risk of Xiang Yin Road station of Shanghai metro line 8 according to the information, which is applied to the new method and theory. The new system classified the level of the risk of the station itself, pointed out the potential risk which can be understood and taken notice by people.