Evaluation Study Of Compensating Regulation Of Cascade Reservoirs On The Main Stream Of Yellow River

Aiming at the problem of compensating regulation of cascade reservoirs on the main stream of Yellow River, the 36 integrated compensating regulation schemes of two water level years are obtained, and the compensating regulation results of those schemes are gained by application of compensating regulation simulation model. Analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, evaluation indicator system is built. Certainty evaluation and risk analysis models are studied systematically by using the theory and method of system science, and optimal scheme is purposed. The main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Combining the utilization of water resources, ecological environment and flood control, the different kinds of regulation measures such as water transfer, water saving, sewage resources and so on are combined. According to the requirement of water resources sustainable use in Yellow River, 19 compensating regulation schemes are obtained in 2010, and 17 are obtained in 2020.Then the results of 36 schemes are obtained by using simulation model. Furthermore, the main outcomes of economic, society and ecological environment about each scheme are analyzed contrastively of two water level years.(2) Aiming to the compensating regulation characters of cascade hydropower station, evaluation indicator system is quadripartite from economy, society, environment and water resources utilization, and 16 indexes are obtained. AHP is introduced to build deterministic evaluation model, and different weight is adopted to evaluate the 36 compensating regulation schemes of two water level years.(3) The interaction between compensating regulation measures and objects are analyzed generally, and the multivariate correlation analysis model about distinguishing the major risk factors of those schemes is proposed. The Monte Carlo random simulation model for risk analysis of the compensating regulation is built, combining the subjective and objective probability distribution, coupling Monte Carlo (MC) random simulation technique and theschemes model with the certainty evaluation model.(4) The compensating regulation schemes are studied by application of the certainty and risk evaluation model, the certainty and risk evaluation results of 36 integrated schemes are obtained. Certainty evaluated outcome shows that the principle of combining excavation interior with interbasin water transfer is followed by compensating regulation, or else sustainable development of economy and society on Yellow River basin will be not fulfilled. The risk analytic outcome shows that the schemes'risk of the multi-measures is lower than the sole-measure's. The reason is that the risk of multi-measures is not happened simultaneously, and the measures among each other have compensation effect.(5) Aiming at the characteristic of the evaluation of compensating regulation schemes, approximate ideal solution method is introduced to evaluate the compensating regulation schemes with deterministic evaluation and risk evaluation, thus the overall sort is obtained. These schemes were evaluated more exactly and fully, and the reliability is improved. It's showed with evaluation result that the 19th scheme is recommended in 2010 and the 16th scheme in 2020.