Study On Risk Evaluation Model Of Landscaping Project Based On The Contractors’ Perspective

This article combines Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo Simulation, to evaluate the contractors’ risks in landscaping project. At first, it gives a summary of project risk management and analyses the status of research on landscaping project risk management. Secondly, this article identifies the landscaping project has five unique risks according to its characteristics:seedling survival risk, risk of price fluctuation, owner satisfaction as well as the time limit risk. Each risk corresponds to different secondary risk indicators. Thirdly, the risk evaluation index of landscaping project is analyzed and designed, on the basis of it, through of Analytic Hierarchy Process method, this paper establishes a weight system to show the distribution of each risk indicator. Then, this article builds the probability distribution model of every index and explains why, getting the final Monte Carlo Simulation model, and introduces the method and principle of Risk Simulator for Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, a case study is being adopted, using it to verify the Monte Carlo Simulation model and its results, and then give some suggestions about the contractors’ risk management in landscaping projects.