Failure Mode Analysis On The Hydraulic System Of Water Jet Based On Fuzzy-FTA

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a systematic and effective method for reliability analysis. It is widely used in many industry fields such as : airplanes, nuclear power station, natural gas transportation and so on.. The traditional FTA is based on the fact that the probabilities of all the bottom events are precise. But some bottom events' precise probabilities are hard to know in more complex systems with good probability. So the traditional FTA is not suitable for such systems. Changing the probability of all the bottom events into a fuzzy number with fuzzy theory and experts' experience can solve this problem.Based on a deep research on the routes that FTA used in other fields, this paper makes a system reliability analysis on the water jet of "HAI YAN" ship by Fuzzy-FTA method, and its' contents can be summarized as follows:Firstly, give a detailed description of water jet and the hydraulic system after a conclusion research on ship propulsion history. That is the foundation of the analysis process.Secondly, make a theory research on the FTA process and fuzzy theory. Make a compare between the Fuzzy-FTA and FTA. Further more, describe the expectation of the program of Fuzzy-FTA.In the end, make a system reliability analysis by Fuzzy-FTA method on the hydraulic system of water jet. Gain all the minimal cut sets (MCS) of the fault tree. Calculate the probability of the fault tree's top event. Make a research on solving the problems deduced from the fault tree.