Study On Port Economic Early-warning System

As to national economy, there are four stages of periodic undulating to port economic: burning coming back to life, prosperous , decline and bleak. In order to keep healthy development of port economic, and give an alarm in time when something unusual happens , we need to establish port economic early warning system right away.The early warning thought is applied in the management of port economic. Based on the analysis of rationale of port economic early warning system, statistic early warning method is choosed to design port economic early warning.The early warning indexs system is established according with port economic characteristic, including two aspects: the index of harmony of port economic and national economy, and the index of port economy itself. It broadens present research of transportation economic which only focuses on transportation economic itself, ignoring contacting with national economy. The principal component analysis is used to set up the port economic early warning model, which makes the weight of the indexs reflect their contribution to the early warning more objectively.In order to solve the problem of nonlinearity model, and gaining the forecasting information indirectly ,inefficiently, it designs BP nerve network forecast algorithm upon the characteristic of port economic early warning.It sets up the port economic early warning model based on the fuzzy comprehensive appraisal which has solved the problem that the appraisal is too single, and too absolute. So that it can reflect the true state of risk objectively.