Safety Early Warning Research And Application Of Large And Medium Sluice

In order to promote the water conservancy management department to the sluice safety management,the decision-making support means,effectively avoids the sluice accident occurrence effectively,in view of the problems on the current sluice safety early warning,the screening of safety early warning index for sluice and the issue of early warning index empowerment have been deeply studied.The comprehensive warning model of sluice safety is established.The screening method of sluice safety early warning index based on Clustering-Grey Relational Analysis has been put forward.The criteria for evaluating the early warning indexes of sluice safety have been established,early warning levels have been divided and the membership function has been established.The combined weight of early warning index and fuzzy comprehensive early warning model have been determined,which provide a theoretical basis for judging the warning grade of sluice.(1)Based on the cluster-gray correlation analysis method,12 safety warning indicators for sluice have been screened out.In view of the characteristics of complexity,diversity and uncertainty of the causes of sluice accidents,and based on the statistics and analysis of the diseased data of the damaged sluice and the dangerous sluice,the hazard mode of sluice have been analyzed in three aspects: the deficiency of applicability and the deficiency of durability,and analyzes the mechanism of causing the disease of sluice.Based on the comprehensive evaluation system v1.0 of sluice safety,the basic database of index screening has been established,and the method of selecting early warning indexes of sluice safety based on clustering and grey relational analysis has been proposed.The method can eliminate the correlation between the indexes and select the important index from the primary selection index at the same time.Finally,12 of the 38 observable early warning indexes have been obtained from structural strength,structural stability,water passing capacity and concrete structure to reflect the critical early warning indicators that cause the hazard or failure of the sluice,which provide the index system foundation for the establishment of sluice safety early warning system.(2)The combination of weights for early warning indicators of sluice safety based on the ideal point method has been determined.The evaluation standard and standardized processing formula of early warning index have been set up,the quantitative processing of early warning index has been realized,and the membership function of "trapezoid distribution" of early warning index corresponding to each early warning level has been constructed.The subjective weight of the index has been calculated by AHP,the objective weight has been calculated by the variation coefficient method and the entropy weight method.Then the comprehensive weight of the index has been calculated by the ideal point method,which means that the idea of minimizing the deviation between the vector objective function and the ideal point considering the problem.The method combines subjective judgment with objective data information effectively,and overcomes the defects of common combination weighting methods.(3)Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,the sluice of Sanjiangkou has been determined that is in the state of heavy alarm(level IV).The data in the safety appraisal report of Sanjiangkou sluice have been selected and its subjective weight has been calculated.The objective weight values of 12 early-warning indexes have been calculated by taking the data of 35 large and medium-sized sluice safety appraisal reports in Liaoning Province as the database.The membership degree of the safety early-warning grade of sluices obtained by three different weighting methods has been compared and analyzed,which shown that the calculation results obtained based on ideal point method was closer to reality.According to the calculation of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the sum of membership degree of Sanjiangkou sluice in IV and v grade is greater than 50 persent.The sluice has been determined in a heavy alarm state and there was a great security hidden danger,and it was necessary to deal with the danger removal and reinforcement in time.