Research On The Change And Forecast Of Transportation Structure Of Jiangsu

The comprehensive transportation system includes five kinds of transportation modes of railway , highway , water transport , civil aviation and pipeline as a whole . In the developing history of the transportation industry, a certain transport mode in these five kinds of transportation modes occupied the leading position, the transportation structure in developing, so as to meet need of economic and social development at constant evolution.This dissertation researched internal reason and external reason about the evolution of the transportation structure at first, and recommended the five kinds of transportation modes'technological and economic character and the main influencing factor on society and economy. Then it also described the evolution course of the transports structure from the angle of the theory of the systems.Transportation system can be divided into two subsystems: passenger transport system and freight transportation system; each of the two systems'evolution mechanism on transportation structure has both connection and differences. Then this dissertation took Jiangsu Province as an example and carried on quantitative analysis to developing relationship among transportation modes of the passenger transport system and the freight transport system in Jiangsu Province, using the grey systematic analytical method -- Degree of grey slope incidence.By above-mentioned quantitative research, we can know that in the passenger transport system, there is more obvious substitutability between the five kinds of transportation modes. The evolution on transportation structure was mainly realized by one transportation mode's proportion declining and the other mode's proportion increasing. Then it forecasted the transportation structure of the passenger transport system in the following five years of Jiangsu, by using the artificial neural network and MATLAB.As to freight transport system, there is no obvious substituting relation between the five kinds of transportation modes, the development of the transportation structure is mainly realized by the change of the demand of volume of goods transported by suitable for different transportation modes. This dissertation predicted each transporting amount of the transportation mode of the following five years in Jiangsu Province by using the dynamically greyly the method and on this basis drawn the prediction amount of transporting structure of the freight transport system.