| At present, the transportation infrastructure is not enough, the contradiction between the traffic supply and traffic demand becomes increasingly outstanding, which seriously affects the development of the society in China. During the urban quick development, there are many urban traffic problems, such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution and so on. After deeply studying the traffic congestion problems, people wake up to that it can not solve the urban traffic problems only to increase the transportation infrastructure, and must adopt the strategies from the headstream of leading traffic congestion to solve the traffic problems, so the concept of the Transportation Demand Management (TDM for short) is coming out.The establishment of the Transportation Demand Management changes the mode in which people deal with the traffic problems, people take more and more importance to the travel demand forecasting. The travel demand forecasting is the base of transportation system planning, which can study the residents'travel characteristics and analyze their travel behaviors. It is the premise of the TDM strategies, which also can guarantee the transportation planning success. During constructing the transportation infrastructure, we should adopt the measures of decreasing travel demand to relieve the contradiction of the traffic demand and traffic supply, accurately analyze the travel demand to build the balanced transportation system, to create the continuable transportation environment for the society development at last.The activity-based travel demand forecasting model is one disaggregated model, which is based on the individual travel behaviors, and can accurately describe the individual travel decision-making. And the government department establishes the transportation management strategies and builds the transportation infrastructure on the aggregated aspects, but the residents decide to accept the strategies or not on the basis of individual utility maximum. The ultimate aim of the travel demand forecasting is to gain the unitary data, so the study on the aggregated analysis of the disaggregated travel choice behavior is very significant.Under the circumstances of the advanced social economy and high information, we should combine the characteristic analysis in the unit of individuals with the travel demand forecasting analysis in study areas organically. We should analyze people's travel choice decision-making, establish the activity-based disaggregated travel choice forecasting models, and do the aggregated analysis of the travel behaviors, study the change of the travel demand objectively, and forecast the distributional regularity from time and space aspects accurately. And, it can provide some basis of the transportation policy establishing, and the policy sensitive analysis and so forth for the transportation management department to relieve the traffic congestion and improve the circumstance quality. At the same time, we can try to build the proper travel demand forecasting method conforming to the development of transportation system in our country, and provide a new method for the transportation planning strategies establishment and the TDM policies evaluation.Considering these aspects, and basing on the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (RFDP), the activity-based disaggregated travel choice model, this paper makes general and primary research on the activity-based travel mode choice forecasting model and the activity-based activity chain choice forecasting model, then does the aggregated analysis of the travel behaviors and evaluates Transportation Demand Management policy. The main contents of this paper can be summarized as follows:Chapter1. Introduction First of all, it introduces the background of the paper and the necessity of the research. Secondly, it discusses the development of the integrative application of the disaggregated models and the aggregated models. At last, it introduces the contents of the paper.Chapter2. Review of Transportation Demand Forecasting Models Firstly, it introduces the Four Process Model and the disaggregated model, and contrasts the two kinds of models. Secondly, it introduces the activity-based travel demand forecasting model, which is one of the advanced disaggregated models. Finally, it introduces the aggregated methods of the transportation planning field, it puts forward the assumption of the aggregated study of disaggregated travel behaviors to research on the travel demand forecasting, which is more suitable in the actual condition of the society, which is also the basis of the next two chapters.Chapter3. Travel Mode Choice Model and the Aggregated Method Application At first, it introduces the knowledge of the activity-based travel mode choice model and according to the data of Changchun city in 2003, it establishes and estimates the disaggregated travel mode choice model. Next it does the aggregated analysis of the travel mode choice probability to gains the best aggregated method, at last it evaluates one Transportation Demand Management strategy with the integrative method, which pioneers one new research direction for the integrative application of the disaggregated model and the aggregated model and the Transportation Demand Management strategy evaluation.Chapter4. Activity Chain Choice Forecasting Model and the Aggregated Method Analysis At first, it introduces the knowledge of the activity chain, and then it analyzes the Changchun data in 2003, establishes and estimates the activity-based activity chain choice forecasting model, which is the basis of the unitary continuity of the residents'behaviors. At last it adopts the aggregated analysis methods to analyze the activity chain choice behaviors to gains the best aggregated method, which is the basis of the integrative application of the disaggregated model and the aggregated model.Chapter5. Summarization At first, it discusses the thought of the integrative application of the disaggregated model and the aggregated model, and then it summarizes the main contents of the paper, points out the problems to solve and direction to study in future.The meanings and the innovations of this paper are:1. According 2003 Changchun data, build the activity-based travel mode choice models and estimate the parameters of the models, then do the aggregated analysis of the resident travel mode choice behaviors to gain the best aggregated method and to calculate every travel mode choice probability, at last evaluate the one Transportation Demand Management strategy, attempt to provide the new research route of the integrative research on the disaggregated model and the aggregated model and the Transportation Demand Management strategy evaluation method for the transportation planning department.2. Build the activity-based activity chain choice forecasting model with the Changchun data in 2003, and do the aggregated analysis of the activity chain choice probability to gain the best aggregated method, to effectively analyze the unitary continuity of the residents'travel decision-makings, and also attempt to do the farther integrative research on the disaggregated model and the aggregated model. |
