Physical Modeling Research To Prediction And Appraise Of Bank Collapse In The Three Gorges

Bank collapse is a complex process after reservoirs store water, and its pattern and scales of bank collapse are influenced by many factors. Although there are many models and methods of prediction of bank collapse now, they are put forward according to study on plain reservoir basically. It is shown that it is not suitable for the Three Gorges to predict bank collapse with them. Physical modeling experiments which is used to research mechanism, pattern and prediction methods of bank collapse thoroughly and systematically is carried according to the Three Gorges. On the basis of study on geology environment condition in the Three Gorges, such factors as angle of slope, water level, intensity of the rain, earthiness and wave are considered in these experiments. The relation between width of bank collapse and every influence factors is researched, and the mechanism of bank collapse is analysed. It is shown that the relation between width of bank collapse and angle of the slope, physical makeup of the slope and intensity of the rain is positively related as a whole, that sensitivity to every influence factors for width of bank collapse is different, that there is a critical value of every factor and the factor will influence on bank collapse differently if it is more than this value, that a new method named of multiple regression method which is used to predict wideth of reservoir bank collapse is put forward according to many results of physical modeling experiments on reservoir bank collapse. The width of bank collapse can be predicted accurately with this method proved by results of some examples. Based on multiple regression method, bank collapse prediction system on the Three Gorges is developed. It can be used to predict and analyse reservoir bank collapse.