Research On The Forecasting Method Of Passenger Flow In Urban Agglomeration On The Basis Of Operation Organization

The rail transit has the great traffic capacity, high speed, safe, punctual, comfortable and the environmental friendly characteristics, just because of these superiority which other traffic modes were unable to compare, the urban agglomeration will certainly first to consider to solve the problems such as traffic jam and environment worsening and so on through the construction of rail transit system. In recent years, our country has already sped up the step of building rail transit system in the urban agglomeration.The domestic passenger flow forecasting methods are either based on the municipal transportation or the intercity transportation, and the completely fittest method of passenger flow forecasting in urban agglomeration have not been established now. Considering that the urban agglomeration transportation has both the municipal transportation characteristic and regional transportation characteristic, this paper has been made some improvements of the existing "four stages" forecasting method, proposed a forecasting method of passenger flow in urban agglomeration on the basis of operational organization, in order to promotes the scientificity and the rationality of urban traffic plan and passenger flow forecasting in urban agglomeration.The improvements of the forecasting method of passenger flow in urban agglomeration on the basis of operational organization include:(1) The forecasting accuracy control program and method of passenger flow generation in urban agglomeration. On the basis of analyzing the passenger flow generation characteristics in urban agglomeration, this paper puts forward the "four stages" control program on passenger flow generation forecasting: traffic zone partition control,forecasting methods option,modeling accuracy control and results adjustment, discussed the accuracy control detailedly in every stage. For the results adjustment, it brings forward regional external transportation adjustment,spatial distribution adjustment,generation gross equilibrium adjustment,generation and attract equilibrium, and establishes the adjusting model respectively.(2) Double paths trip distribution forecast method under the limited information in metropolitan agglomeration. This paper analyzes the information about urban agglomeration that can be collected and the characteristic of traffic distribution in urban agglomeration, discusses the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of some common used distribution forecasting model, puts forward the forecasting method of passenger flow double track distribution under the situation of limited information in urban agglomeration.(3) Two stage carved up by RP/SP data and forecasting municipal,intercity passenger flow respectively. According to RP/SP data, this paper takes the participants preference extent over the rail transit that will be constructed in the future into accounts; forecasts municipal,intercity passenger flow respectively considering there are difference between trip mode choice under different range; The whole mode is carved up into two steps, pre-partition chiefly considers the cooperative and competitive relationship between public traffic modes and personal traffic modes, confederate assignment split chiefly considers the cooperative and competitive relationship between the public traffic modes.(4) A transit assignment method of synthetic public transit network with cooperation and competition on the basis of operational organization. First, analyze the cooperative and competitive relationship between public transit and personal traffic, then get the public transit OD through modes pre-partition, then load the operational organization to carry out confederate assignment on the synthetic public transit network, after that inspect the assigned results, if the precision is beyond the tolerance, then it needs to adjust the operational organization of the rail transit and re-carry out the assignment until the results between the rail transit operational organization and rail transit passenger flow become stable.