Research On Probability Model Of Seismic Risk Estimation For Building Group

The seismic risk estimation for buildings is one of the most important parts of urban earthquake disaster planning. It can enhance the earthquake disaster resistance of the city, and reduce the number of casualty in the earthquake. There is few of research conclusion about the seismic risk estimation of buildings, and risk management is still not used in the filed of earthquake disaster prediction for buildings well. From the angle of seismic risk of building group, the probability model of seismic risk estimation for building group is obtained according to formulas of Ambrasseys and Yin Zhiqian about seismic risk and seismic losses in the paper. We can quantitatively estimate the seismic risk of building group by using the probability model of seismic risk estimation for building group, and this probability model can be carried out in practice easily.The probability model of seismic risk estimation for building group consists of two parts which are seismic hazard analysis and seismic damage probability model for building group. So some work is done and some new opinions are given during the research process:1. During the analysis of seismic hazard, the probability of earthquake occurring can be quickly calculated according to the probability analysis of seismic hazard which is denoted by exceeding probability curves and probability theory.2. The process of obtaining the seismic damage probability model for building group includes the following several steps. Firstly, vulnerability matrix of buildings of seven cities which are Fuzhou,Xiamen,Quanzhou, Zhangzhou,Nanan,Longyan and Putian are analyzed and transformed into probability density matrix of vulnerability index. Secondly, the data of probability density matrix of vulnerability index is fitted with normal distribution,log-normal distribution and exponential distribution functions according to the rule of seismic damage for building group. The damage probability model for building group is confirmed by comparing the results of data fitting. In the end, the seismic damage probability model for building group is verified with vulnerability matrix for buildings of Tangshan,Dalian,Wulumuqi and Dongying. By analysis, this probability model is widely applied to seismic damage prediction for building group despite the fact that different cities generally have different model parameters. The degree of seismic damage for building group can be simply and quickly predicted by using this method compared with other methods.